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It's that time of the season again, European knockout weekend, the weather is good and Easter is only around the corner....... oh yeah it's 2020.
It's quarter final weekend and we should be glad that rugby is actually taking place again although the way things are going I only hope the competition is actually played out to a conclusion. On a personal note, these weekends are a real downer when Munster aren't involved. I miss the excitement of the build up, the scramble for tickets and the buzz of match day itself. Still there are two Irish teams involved so at least there remains some interest.
Leinster host Saracens in the first of the four games. The fact there will be no crowd does take a slight edge off it but the bookies still have Leinster as solid favourites. You can't under estimate how good this Leinster side is and the fact they are unbeaten so far in this extended season......BUT I think Saracens will have been watching the games against Munster and Ulster and have identified a number of areas they plan to attack Leinster on.
The lineout is the first one. Over the three games Leinster were extremely poor out of touch. Poor throws, miscommunication, mistiming and great pressure from Ulster and Munster depowered Leinsters lineout and by association it's maul. Taking away the front and/or the middle of the lineout forces Kelleher to throw longer and those percentages haven't paid off for the men in blue so far this season. Ulster in particular shut Leinsters lineout down and even managed to stack their pods to counteract and nullify the powerfull Leinster maul. Saracens will try to use Itoje and co to do the same.
If there is one part of the game since the restart that I don't think Leinster have adapted to its the breakdown. The change in focus on the laws has aided the jackal and Leinster haven't adapted to keep their heavy carrier pods rotating enough to play their possession game like they were doing pre lockdown. As Munster in particular showed if you get jackals at the breakdown you force Leinster to commit more players to the ruck taking carrier options away and forcing them to do things differently or slower than they want to.
Leinster still have some fantastic strike plays and Ringrose has been on top form since the return but if you suck them into the breakdown and force them to play from deep in their own half without one of their main set pieces functioning they will struggle. Kicking contestables and targeting Larmour in the air are bound to be part of McCalls gameplan. Saracens have nothing else to play for, and will have been targeting this game since we'll before lockdown. Munster may have shown them the game plan but in the one area where Munster were weakest, the tight five, Saracens certainly aren't.
It will be interesting to see the teams when announced. Will Leinster keep Keenan on the wing to help with the aerial targeting of Larmour? Will Toner get the nod as the lineout safety blanket or will Leinster go with Fardy? Can Manu Vunipola fill Farrell's shoes and especially off the tee? My new favourite phrase is "who can win the reset race between defenders and attackers" (thanks to @TheLooseH for that) and this could be the main battle that decides what is likely to be close to a war.
Ulster face a huge task as they go to the south of France to face Toulouse. Ulster can take heart from their performance the Aviva last week but hopefully it hasn't come at too big a cost. Marcel Coetzee is an injury doubt and he is such an important talisman for the Ulstermen. Ulster will be relying on Henderson, McCloskey and Coetzee to put them on the front foot and for the rest to pile in behind. Losing Coetzee not only takes away a big carrier but also someone that can provide the momentum from a huge tackle or a jackal win that can lift a side and change the energy of a game.
Ulster also need to review their decision making from penalties. In the Aviva last week they turned down so many kicks at goal that it seemed to be a tactical decision. I don't know if it was Burns not being comfortable or able to kick them but Ulster have to find a way to keep that scoreboard ticking over. Alby Mathewson is a superb signing and I'm sure the Ulster fans are seeing why he was so loved in Munster. He did however start to fade and getting Cooney on earlier has to happen this weekend. Cooneys form since lockdown has been poor to say the least and he'll want and need a big game this weekend.
From the highlights I saw Toulouse looked like themselves in their away win at La Rochelle. Toulouse were back playing the "Toulouse" way. They had their forwards and backs intermingling, carrying with such ease and confidence that only the French seem to be able to do so well. Their use of the pop pass just before contact and offload out of the tackle is a joy to watch and one way to get around the new breakdown interpretations. Ulster will need to ensure they put the ball carrier onto the ground because if Toulouse find their rhythm it could be along day.
Best of luck to both Irish sides (washes mouth out with soap) and hopefully the big game of the weekend (Munster A v Connacht A) will be streamed for true rugby fans to watch.
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