Are Wales the reason Ireland have a set piece problem?

Ireland may remain at the top of the world rankings but an increasingly unavoidable truth is emerging: Irish rugby has a set-piece problem. And despite headlines focusing on the national side, the issue runs much deeper—right through all four provinces—and may prove far more difficult to reverse than many realise.

A Lineout That Has Become Predictable

For years, Ireland's lineout has been considered “gettable.” Opponents have learned they can disrupt the throw without necessarily stealing possession. By stacking defensive pods in the middle and back, rival teams regularly force Ireland to play to the front, where traditionally Peter O’Mahony—and more recently Ryan Baird—can spring quickly enough to secure the ball.

While this approach limits outright turnovers, it has transformed the line out from an attacking launchpad into little more than a controlled restart. Ireland retain possession roughly 80% of the time, but at the cost of compressing attacking space and reducing strike-move potential.

This pattern is mirrored across the provinces. So far this URC season, only Leinster boast a lineout success rate above 90%. Ireland managed just 80% across the Autumn Nations Series.

	Lineouts Won	Lineouts Lost	Success %
Ireland	43	11	80%
Leinster	80	4	95%
Munster	71	12	86%
Ulster	41	12	77%
Connacht	51	12	81%

Scrum Issues Mounting

Ireland’s scrum woes have become increasingly visible. The pack was dominated by South Africa in November, and that performance was not an anomaly. The 2022 meeting with England—where Charlie Ewels’ early red card still didn’t prevent Ireland conceding six scrum penalties—was an early warning. Their World Cup quarter-final loss to New Zealand saw more costly infringements, while the 2025 Six Nations game in Cardiff included four scrum penalties conceded before half-time against Wales.

Again, the trend is not confined to the national team. Munster, Connacht and Ulster have all struggled to contain larger, heavier packs, while Leinster’s long-running quest for a fifth European star has often been undone at scrum time.

Province	2025 URC Ranking Scrum Offences	# of Scrum Offences in 2025 URC
Connacht *	7	11
Leinster	10	17
Ulster*	12	19
Munster	14	21

* has played one game less

A Post-World Cup Shift in Ireland’s Game Plan

Before the 2023 Rugby World Cup, Ireland were world No. 1 and celebrated for an intricate, multi-layered attack reminiscent of rugby league structures. Their set piece was a concern, but not a fatal flaw.

Since then, notable changes have emerged:

• More tactical kicking

• Longer, riskier passing

• Greater reliance on powerful edge carriers such as James Lowe and Dan Sheehan

  
  

Ireland 2023 vs 2025 (Per Game Averages)

• Rucks: 100 → 85 (↓15%)

• Passes: 196 → 183 (↓7%)

• Kicks: 27 → 31 (↑15%)

• Line breaks: 7 → 6.8

• 22 entries: 13 → 10

• Conversion rate: unchanged

Law Tweaks That Put Premium on Power

Changes in law interpretation have only magnified the impact of set-piece weakness.

Kick Escort Law:Teams can no longer shield catchers with blockers, increasing aerial competition. The rise of “tap-back” tactics has led to more knock-ons and, in turn, more scrums.

No Scrum Option From Free Kicks:While the total number of scrums has dropped, referees are now calling more infringements per scrum. With fewer opportunities available, dominance at the set piece has become even more valuable.

The Lancaster and Farrell Effect

How, then, did Irish rugby end up structurally misaligned with this new era and why did the Welsh cause it?

Wales’ dramatic win over England at the 2015 Rugby World Cup cost the English coaching team their jobs—a chain of events that brought Stuart Lancaster to Leinster and Andy Farrell to Ireland.

Lancaster’s arrival prompted major changes in Leinster’s physical profile. Cian Healy shed 15kg between 2015 and 2020, Tadhg Furlong lost 8kg between 2019 and 2023 and Leinster’s front row became more mobile, more skillful—but lighter to suit Lancasters game plan.

Under Joe Schmidt, Ireland still valued set-piece specialists: tall, heavy locks like Devin Toner or Jean Kleyn, and even set piece first focused front rows such as Niall Scannell or John Ryan got caps.

Farrell’s tenure as head coach has marked a more dramatic shift. Selection has increasingly favoured mobility, versatility and rugby-league-style defensive attributes:

• Centres operate as auxiliary flankers

• Front rowers are judged heavily on contributions in open play

• Locks resemble big back-rows rather than traditional set-piece anchors

  
  

This leaves Ireland undersized compared with elite opposition. Dan Sheehan is widely admired for his dynamic open play, but seldom noted for his scrummaging or throwing. Tadhg Beirne—brilliant as he is—is only 6ft 5. Ireland’s primary lineout options (Beirne, Joe McCarthy, Ryan Baird) are all 6ft 6 or under—noticeably shorter than many rival packs. Andrew Porter routinely concedes 10–20kg to top opposing tightheads like Tomas du Toit or Wilco Louw and Joe McCarthy gives up 3 inches and nearly 15kg to someone like his club mate RG Snyman.

Ireland’s shift away from a short-passing game toward a more kick-focused strategy has, somewhat ironically, increased the number of set-piece situations they face. Yet the squad is populated with forwards who are not primarily set-piece specialists. The simple explanation is that there are not many such players available. The provinces, whose role is to supply the national side, have adapted their development pathways accordingly. With central contracts and IRFU funding structured to reward the production of international-level players, provincial systems have prioritised the profiles most valued by the national team—mobile, athletic forwards with strong skills in open play.

Leinster, with their population base and tightly aligned schools-to-academy structure, exemplify this trend. Under Stuart Lancaster and Leo Cullen, their pathway has been exceptionally efficient at producing dynamic, multi-skilled forwards. But that very success has also meant an emphasis on front rows celebrated more for their contributions in phase play than for traditional set-piece strength. Players who excel primarily at scrummaging often require longer to develop and may not fit neatly into the current template. Addressing this imbalance would likely demand a reset at the earliest stages of the development pathway—changes that would take years before producing visible results.

A Long-Term Issue Requiring Long-Term Solutions

Ireland's set-piece problems are not isolated incidents or short-term form dips. They stem from a decade of structural evolution—toward a fast, fluid, skill-based identity—at precisely the moment global rugby has shifted back toward power and set-piece dominance.

Correcting course will require more than coaching tweaks. It will demand systemic change, new selection priorities, and a potentially re-engineering of the player pathway.

And in Irish rugby, where success has often been defined by speed, cohesion and technical skill, that might be the toughest challenge of all. And damn the Welsh for causing this in the first place......