Ireland - State of the Nation

…And with that, the 2025 Irish international rugby season comes to a close. A year in which Andy Farrell added to his legacy with a Lions series win in Australia ends with a far more uncomfortable reality: the head coach now faces a defining choice. Does he make structural changes ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup, or does he double down on an ageing core and risk another early exit?

Ireland’s foundations under Farrell are built on cohesion, clarity, and conservative selection. But with 2027 approaching fast, that stability is starting to look like stagnation.

Cohesion as a Philosophy—and a Limitation

Farrell’s playing career was built on uncompromising mentality, and that approach carries directly into his selection policy. One of the great challenges of international rugby is time: coaches have minimal windows to prepare players who come from multiple clubs with differing styles. Cohesion becomes a competitive advantage.

Farrell’s solution has been to use Leinster as the cohesion glue of the national side. By selecting the majority of his squad from one club—while largely mirroring their playing style—Ireland can bypass the need for extensive system coaching. This cohesion hack doesn't mean that Farrell will pick from just one provincial team, but that he will add to it using players with specific skill sets to add additional value to his team and squad. Cohesion frees the coaching staff to focus on detail rather than fundamentals.

Ireland aren’t just cohesion-heavy—they are an outlier internationally.

Scale of the Leinster Weighting

Country	# Players Selected	# Clubs Picked From	Highest Percentage from one club
Ireland	34	4	62%
Italy	34	13	41%
Scotland	45	14	39%
France	42	11	26%
Wales	39	12	23%
England	35	8	20%

Set Piece: A Restart, Not a Weapon

Ireland continue to view the set piece primarily as a restart rather than an attacking platform, which has turned into a significant problem.

The scrum is tolerated more than embraced; key selections prioritise abilities in open play rather than set-piece dominance. Dan Sheehan and Andrew Porter are world-class athletes, but their reputations rest on their carrying, mobility, and breakdown work—not on their lineout work or scrum efforts.

Porters work in the loose is so valuable that he is virtually undropable,

• Porter has started all but three games in the last two years (Georgia, Portugal—when on Lions duty—and one vs Australia but he played 33 minutes off the bench).

• He has played 72% of all loosehead minutes since 2023 (1,261 of 1,760).

Lineout Concerns

Ireland’s lineout completion rate this autumn was 80%, but headline figures mask deeper issues:

• 73% success vs South Africa

• 100% vs Australia

• 82% vs Japan

• 69% vs New Zealand

  
  

Ireland won 43 of 54 throws, but the quality of possession is the concern. Too often throws go to the front, limiting attacking options—particularly with an ineffective maul and long throws beyond the 15m line are quickly suffocated by modern defensive line speed.

Once again, Ireland are treating the set piece as a restart rather than a launchpad.

Tactical Shift: From Phase Pressure to Expansive Kicking

Up to RWC 2023, Ireland’s attack resembled a rugby league structure built on pods, layered options, and relentless phase play. It was effective—but it collapsed under New Zealand’s pressure when the set piece failed and Sexton faded.

Post-RWC, Ireland have shifted:

• More kicking

• Longer, wider passing

• Greater reliance on power carriers on the edge (Lowe, Sheehan)

  
  

2023 vs 2025 (Average Per Match)

• Rucks: 100 → 85 (↓15%)

• Passes: 196 → 183 (↓7%)

• Kicks: 27 → 31 (↑15%)

• Line breaks: 7 → 6.8

• 22 entries: 13 → 10

• Conversion %: unchanged

  
  

Ireland now kick as frequently as other top sides—but they were last among their peers this autumn in:

• Metres per carry

• Line breaks

• Tries scored

The data matches the eye test: Ireland kick often, but lack the power to consistently win the gain line with ball in hand.

Law Changes Have Quietly Hurt Ireland

Recent tweaks to escort laws and aerial contests have made scrums more frequent, especially off contestable kicks—now a core part of Ireland’s approach. More broken play = more knock-ons = more scrums.

This magnifies a weakness Ireland have deprioritised for years.

South Africa exploited this brutally in the final game of the Autumn Series, setting a psychological marker that referees will remember. Like the lineout, if teams believe they can pressure Ireland’s scrum, they will.

Will Farrell Change? Signs Point to “No”

Farrell’s media interactions in the aftermath of games this autumn showed he is both unused to and very unhappy dealing with scrutiny and questioning of his approach. Challenging questions about set piece and selection drew curt, defensive answers and the journalists in the Dublin media bubble remain largely cautious of rocking the boat with anything considered even close to a contentious question.

Everything suggests Farrell will double down on cohesion, not overhaul it, but here are some changes he could make. These are not options to replace existing players per se but are suggestions that could be added to the squad with minutes shared, players rotated and real depth added to the squad and match day 23.

Prop

Ireland need a set-piece loosehead to rotate with Porter and McCarthy. Candidates are limited, but Jeremy Loughman could fit the profile.

Hooker

Ireland require a thrower they fully trust—someone to fill the old Rob Herring role.Tom Stewart deserves a run.

Lock / Hybrid Lock

Edwin Edogbo must be integrated into the Six Nations squad as a rotation option with McCarthy. For the lineout option and hybrid lock role Tom Ahern and Cormac Izuchuku should be in matchday squads for their height, athleticism and dynamic ability to supplement what Ryan Baird brings to the role.

Back Row

Farrell surprised many by including Brian Gleeson as a development prospect—perhaps a hint of change. In the back row Ireland need:

• A genuine lineout 6

• Doris at 7 with Josh van der Flier as the back up

• A big carrying 8

Options: Gleeson, Sean Jansen, David McCann. Coombes remains unlikely given selection history.

Centres

A looming crisis. All four frontline options are 30+.

Ireland need new options:

• Hugh Gavin (has been included in training squads but limited options)

• Dan Kelly (seems to have the skillsets Farrell likes)

• Jude Postlethwaite (a different style entirely—could transform the attack)

  
  

Back Three

Ireland lack pace and transition threat. Keenan remains vital due to his ability to cover ground in defence and his ruck work in wide channels. Jamie Osborne should be considered a centre, not a wing/fullback due to his lack of pace.

With Prendergast getting so much game time at 10 does Lowe’s role with the big left boot become questionable as he loses speed and hits his mid 30's?

Candidates: Baloucoune, Ward, Nash, Bolton, Kilgallen.

Cohesion’s Unintended Consequences

Farrell’s strategy has created significant pressure across Irish rugby:

• Fans feel disconnected from a team dominated by one province.

• Players have left Ireland—or chosen other countries—due to restricted pathways - for example Ireland’s best tighthead-lock watched the Ireland scrum disintegrate from the stands in a Springbok tracksuit.

  
  

Cohesion isn’t just affecting other provinces—it’s affecting Leinster too. With eight Leinster front-row players involved this autumn (five Lions), the financial model of pushing costs back onto the provinces doesn't work as the cohesion plan becomes very costly.

Humphreys’ early decision to shift central contract costs back onto provinces was a direct response to Nucifora’s failure to protect system balance—and to Farrell’s selection patterns.

Leinster may simply be unable to retain all their depth players. Moves for Deegan, Penny, Frawley and others would not be surprising.

With Stuart Lancaster arriving in Galway and Richie Murphy building momentum at Ulster, alternative pathways are becoming attractive.

A Brewing Power Struggle

There is a clear tension emerging and I believe we are seeing the start of the power struggle between the Head Coach and the Performance Director that was never there under Nucifora:

• Farrell wants cohesion and loyalty to "his" players.

• Humphreys wants broader player movement and system balance for the entire Irish rugby eco- system.

  
  

The 2026 Six Nations is likely to define Farrell’s Ireland trajectory. If he injects new blood, the public will accept short-term pain. If he doubles down on ageing stalwarts and Leinster-heavy cohesion, he risks locking in another cycle of quarter-final heartbreak—leaving a rebuild for the next coach in 2027.