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With the second round of the URC about to kick off I thought I'd take a quick look at some of the things Andy Farrell will be looking out for ahead of the Autumn internationals.
Front Row
Possibly the biggest change in the entire squad with Andrew Porter moving to loose head. This has the potential to allow Ireland have one of the most impactful front rows in World Rugby with 3 players chosen for the Lions, Porter, Kelleher and Furlong. We all know how good Porter is in the loose but Farrell will be watching and wanting to see him make his mark at scrum time.
On the flip side of Porter's change is Cian Healy's move in the opposite direction to cover tight head. It remains to be seen if this is a short term switch while waiting for Furlong to return after the Lions and injuries to the likes of Clarkson but if Healy is moved to tight head permanently then I think it may spell the end of his international career as Porter and Kilcoyne would surely be the favourites for the loose head side and tight head has Furlong, Ryan, O'Toole and Belham as well as Michael Alaalatoa and the likes of Clarkson competing for game time at Leinster.
Although Ronan Kelleher didn't see game time with the Lions his potential is there for all to see. Its his ability to impact the game with ball in hand that sets him apart from any of his rivals for the Ireland shirt at present. Andy Farrell will be looking for Kelleher to note only show this open field form but will need Kelleher to show that the nuts and bolts of his hooker play, scrums and particularly lineout are on point before he claims the starting jersey outright. Until then he is in a fight with Rob Herring for that 2 jersey. Dave Heffernan seems to be next in line but he may be looking over his shoulder slightly at Niall Scannell who despite being left out of the 50 man training squad has started the season brightly for Munster.
Second Row
This is a strange one for Farrell as he has proven talent, possibly not hitting previous heights and some real potential coming through the ranks. One of the biggest questions Farrell needs to decide on is whether Tadhg Beirne is a second row or hybrid lock at 6. I think we will see him play more at 6 for Munster this season due to their resources in the second row but that may not be the case for Ireland.
Farrell will desperately want James Ryan to find his best form again. Ryan has really struggled in the last 12 months or so and not making the Lions will have been a blow to him personally. Ryan still has a massive work rate, regularly topping the tackle stats and always willing to carry the ball, but the reality is that with those carries he's rarely making an impact on the player, he seems to have lost his dynamism. I think a lot of that can be put down to the role he is being asked to play as a tight head lock. I'm not sure that's his best role and the effort he puts in the tight means his effectiveness in the loose is diminished. Having someone else play tight head lock could be the change he needs to re-vitalize himself on the international stage.
Iain Henderson is another who would have wanted more from the Lions tour and I think he works better with Ryan as a partner. Henderson with ball in hand is dynamic carrier and seems to work as good foil for Ryan. Joe Schmidt was always a fan of the unpopular tight head lock, a guy you don't tend to notice much, but is always appreciated by his team mates for his work in the tight and rucking. Guys like Quinn Roux and Jean Kleyn were never going to be media or fan favourites but their role was very important. Kleyn has fallen way down the pecking order since Schmidt left and Farrell doesn't have too many ready made tight head locks to add to the existing options in the squad.
Ryan Baird has made a name for himself over the last 12 months mainly due to his impact with ball in hand in space. His performances in blue have pushed him ahead of the likes of Ultan Dillane in the national pecking order, but the fact that he has failed to nail down a provincial starting spot in a position where Leinster don't have great strength will be a worry. Farrell will want him to nail down that starting spot and prove he can do the basics over 60 minutes plus before he trusts him to be more than a bench option for Ireland.
Backrow
This is perhaps the most competitive spot in the team with so many options for Farrell. If Beirne isn't considered a second row than he has to be considered one of the favourites for the 6 jersey and I have been very impressed with how he and Will Connors have formed a partnership in the back row. Connors with his daisy cutter tackling technique seems to be the ideal foil for Beirne's jackal ability.
Josh van der Flier's game has taken a huge leap forward in the last 12 months or so. His carrying has improved immensely and along with his work rate and tackling puts him as a strong contender for the openside spot. Who owns the Leinster 7 jersey could go a long way towards deciding the national jersey as well.
Number 8 is the position that will please Farrell the most and also give him the most challenges in terms of man management. Despite CJ Stander's retirement, and the massive hole that leaves in the team, number 8 is the one position where Farrell has multiple quality options to fall back on. Jack Conan is not a like for like player to CJ and plays in a much wider role with ball in hand. If he is to take the jersey Farrell will need to ask other players to fulfil some of the role CJ did for the team, so that either means relying more on the front row for heavy carries or changing the blindside to do so. Despite being the starting 8 for the Lions in all three tests Conan may actually struggle to make the Ireland 23 unless Farrell changes things to accommodate him.
Caelan Doris, Paul Boyle, Nick Timoney, Peter O'Mahony, Rhys Ruddock, Fineen Wycherley and Gavin Coombes are the other options in Farrells 50 man squad. Boyle, Timoney and Wycherley seem to be there to gather experience under the watchful eyes of the Irish management team while POM and Ruddock seems to be little more than break glass in case of emergency, which leaves Doris and Coombes as the two men fighting with Conan for the 8 jersey. Again Doris is not a like for like replacement for CJ so some alterations may be needed tactically where as Coombes bring power and handling ability on a level I'm not sure any of the others can match.
Given the nature of the back row, injury is likely to play a part in the selection process but Farrell's overall tactics will be a massive factor. Who can stay fit and perform week in week out in the URC may get the chance against Japan in the first game and that may lead to the chance of holding the jersey for all three autumn games.
Scrum Half
Conor Murray continues to be the man in possession but he is being pressed harder and harder by those coming through. John Cooney has been excluded for unknown reasons for some time now and while his injury in the first round of the URC won't impact his won chances in green, it may well improve the chances of a rising star in Nathan Doak. Doak wasn't included in the 50 man training squad but regular game time and nailing down the Ulster jersey would go a long way to being included in the wider Autumn International squad and perhaps a run off the bench in one of the games. Craig Casey is the other. more established, young gun in the squad and he will be looking to cement his place as the reserve out half despite Andy Farrell's bewildering lack of game time for him in the 6 Nations. Gibson-Park continues to be Farrell favourite despite being unable to push past Luke McGrath at provincial level and Caolin Blade remains on the fringes.
Out Half
This is the position that continues to give Farrell nightmares and the first round of the URC won't have done much to change that. At 36, Johnny Sexton, continues to be unrivaled at provincial and national level as the starting out half and the contenders to challenge him aren't showing many signs that will change soon. Joey Carbery has gone through his first full pre season with Munster uninjured in two years but has yet to regain the form that made him the automatic back up to Sexton. Farrell will be watching closely his performances for Munster and praying that he rediscovers his form.
Billy Burns is a solid player but has yet to show he has the ability to be the long term starting 10 for Ireland and Ross Byrne has been dropped from the training squad in favour of his younger brother Harry who has more game time playing for Ireland (27) than he does in the Champions Cup for Leinster (18).
Farrell will be desperately looking at the URC form to find someone who can step up not maybe to challenge Sexton right away but at least make it clear they are the rightful successor.
Centre
Barring injury, Robbie Henshaw would appear to be nailed on a starting centre. Then it becomes a question of who his partner should be, and that may come down to the tactical requirements Farrell wants from his centre pairing. Bundee Aki got the Lions call up and bring physicality and gain line success to the table where as an on form Gary Ringrose brings more of a strike runner threat and distributor at outside centre. But the real worry for Farrell is that Ringrose hasn't been able to do that at international or found the form that saw him do that previously for a while now. Farrell will watching Ringrose's form at provincial level with huge interest as the games against Japan, New Zealand and Argentina draw closer.
Without having huge experience at international level I think Farrell knows what Stuart McCloskey and Chris Farrell bring to the table but they haven't been able to break into that top 3 to oust one of Henshaw, Aki or Ringrose. Both McCloskey and Chris Farrell will be looking over their shoulders as James Hume continues his rise through the ranks.
Back Three
Hugo Keenan would seem to be the only one who has his place assured in the team, something that only 18 months ago would have been unthinkable given his rise to the top. Keenan has quickly become the rock at the back that Ireland rely on, and if Farrell is looking for anything in the early rounds of the URC from Keenan it would be an expansion of his attacking and transition play.
Keith Earls continues to be one of Irelands top performers but there is a nagging question whether this might be the season that age finally catches up with him because 34 year old wingers aren't exactly two a penny in top level international rugby sides.
Farrell will also be watching the form of Jacob Stockdale who has been in and out of the team recently but if he can find form in both attack and defense for Ulster he could easily be a starter in the autumn, Robert Balacoune will be hoping the injury he picked up in round 1 of the URC is only minor as his exploits in the summer series show him as a real contender. Will Addison versatility has made his selection in squads a no brainer for Farrell and while Addison himself may be hoping to nail down one position and push for a starting spot it his ability to cover multiple positions that gives him the best hope of seeing game time in the autumn.
Shane Daly and Andrew Conway, both included in the 50 training squad, along with Simon Zebo who didn't make the cut will have to battle it out for spots at Munster first before harbouring international ambitions.
There is no doubting Jordan Larmour's attacking ability and the fact he has amassed 30 caps in such a short period is a testament to that but there remains significant question marks around his defensive ability and particularly under the high ball. James Lowe is in a similar position having his defensive abilities questioned after the 6 Nations but Farrell including him back in the training squad will have been a boost. The biggest question Andy Farrell will have to answer with Larmour and Lowe is whether he can trust their performances at provincial level given Leinster's dominance and how few times in the league their players come under pressure similar to that faced at international level.
Starting XV
Below is the XV I think Andy Farrell will go with versus the All Blacks in the Autumn Internationals. I think he may look to the Japan game first up to play the majority of this starting XV with only a few changes and chances for new faces. Depending on the success of the Japan and All Blacks game he may go with a horses for courses type approach and play the like of Coombes instead of Conan, Connors instead of van der Flier etc.
Porter, Kelleher, Furlong
Henderson, Ryan
Beirne, Conan, van der Flier
Murray, Sexton
Earls, Aki, Henshaw, Zebo
Keenan
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