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Read my full and indepth assessment of Munster going into the Champions Cup
Link to Irish Examiner article for Question 6
1) Given December 1 as a starting point, what are your expectations for the coming year, and where are Munster as things stand with regard to those ambitions
There are a number of caveats and unknowns for the next twelve months, especially with Covid, the introduction of the new South African teams into the league and how the economic downturn will impact the IRFUs contracting process but for Munster this season I think the minimum has to be reaching a final and hopefully winning a trophy. The Pro14 is the obvious aim given Munster’s terrific start to the season but I wouldn’t rule out European silverware especially if Munster are ranked between fifth and eighth after the pool stages and qualify for the European Challenge Cup. The Champions Cup has always been the yardstick where Munster’s performance is measured, but the difference between winning the trophy and making the knockouts, which is still very much a realistic aim this season, is worlds apart.
The Champions Cup format changes tilt the odds hugely in favour of the tier one sides and Munster being in tier two will require some luck and results going their way if they are to qualify for the expanded knockout stages. Munster will have to target both games against Harlequins, a win at home against Clermont and hope for some match points at the Stade Marcel Michelin which is in itself a huge ask. As seen last season winning home games and bonus points are the key to success in the pool stages and despite the new format I don’t see that altering.
Munster are actually in a very good position to make a final due to the start they’ve made to the season. Despite injuries to a number of key players they are undefeated in the league and several of the young players have really put their hands up as genuine contenders for European match day places and even International honours. If they can maintain their league form over Christmas and the New Year, then finishing top of Conference B in the Pro14 would be all but guaranteed and the home semi final that comes with that improves the chances of the final appearance and potential silverware. The first seven games have built the foundation for the season, the next seven games, which include the Champions Cup pool stages and Christmas Interpros, will decide how successful it could be.
2) What is the key barrier to Munster taking the next step and competing consistently again with Europe's elite? In other words, what's missing (if anything...)
In the last few seasons I think it has been not having enough top level heavy carriers and squad strength in depth. To be fair these have been addressed but Munster are not quite there just yet. When playing against the likes of Saracens, Racing or Leinster, Munster have often failed to penetrate the defensive line particularly off slow ball. Only having Stander and Kilcoyne as the heavy carriers meant that Munster couldn’t rotate their carrying pods quickly enough and it was easy for the defence to reset and to double team them when they did carry. By acquiring Farrell, Snyman and De Allende and bringing through the likes of Coombes it makes a huge difference to what Munster can do with the ball in hand as defences can’t double team five or six players. This in turn opens up space for other players and for Munster to attack in different ways.
Munster now have a starting fifteen and maybe even a match day twenty three to compete with Europe’s elite but what they are working towards is true strength in depth and competition for each and every position. For too long I think we saw too little competition for places in the first team. Injuries aside fans and the media could name the first choice starting team weeks in advance of a big game, but that is genuinely changing this season. Does Coombes start in the back row, should Casey start ahead of Murray, Healy ahead of Hanrahan, Daly ahead of Haley? That level of competition can drive better performances from the players and ultimately the team especially if it allows the coach to pick purely on current form and not just historical performance.
However, as we saw in the games against Leinster in the Aviva at the restart of last season Munster injuries to key players can still have a huge impact on what the team is trying to achieve. Munster can’t afford to have injuries to multiple key players at the same time and still automatically expect to be competitive against the top tier teams. What they do have at the moment is a fantastic group of young players emerging from the academy that will further increase competition in the squad and the starting fifteen but a lot of those players need more time to develop. I don’t think silverware is unattainable this season but the Champions Cup may take a little while longer to come back to Thomond Park.
3) Would you say van Graan etc has progressed Munster (and the project) to the point where those ambitions are attainable?
This might be van Graan’s third year here but it still amazes me that Munster have had five different head coaches in the last ten years. That’s five head coaches with potentially five different visions of where Munster were going, how they should play, what type of player should be recruited and what players should be retained or cut from the squad. Add to that changes at CEO and assistant coach level and you begin to see the level of change that Munster have gone through in the last decade. That level of change is never good for any organisation.
Under van Graan, Munster have evolved their style of play in the main because they had to. When he arrived, Munster had reached a ceiling against the top tier teams that they just couldn’t push past. They were trying to play a style of rugby similar to those elite teams – possession rugby and trying to physically dominate the opposition. That worked against the vast majority of teams but against elite sides who are bigger, have the ability to produce or buy greater squads and don’t allow you to get over the gain line, you’re going to struggle as Munster did.
Stephen Larkham is having a material impact on Munster’s style of play and that can be clearly seen in how last season was split into three distinct blocks. Early season, saw van Graan and Larkham have a full preseason and block of games with the internationals away at the World Cup in Japan. They were able to work with the players and help transition the team away from the traditional low risk option of forwards charging head down into a wall of defenders and recycling the ball back to another pod to continue until they box kicked, to a style where forwards have to read the defensive line, pull passes behind them to the backline or tip passes to support runners who change the angle and point of attack. The second block saw the internationals return and they were faced with a completely new way of playing to which they couldn’t fully adapt in the short timeframe and that played a part in Munster’s failure to get out of the Champions Cup pool. The third block was the restart of the season after lockdown and was marred by injuries. The first block of this season has seen all the players being able to work with Larkham and Rowntree and the results so far have been extremely promising.
The last three years have given Munster stability and a consistent vision at the top. van Graan has made the team, squad and coaching ticket his own and now this season I think he has to deliver silverware to back up the faith shown in him. I think he can do it.
4) Who or what is the most exciting prospect in/about Munster Rugby for 2021?
For me I’d have to say it’s all the new players coming through the system. While I think the addition of De Allende and Snyman might have caught most of the media attention in the last 12 months it’s the talent coming through from the academy at the moment that has the potential to drive this team for years to come.
The Autumn Nations Cup saw Shane Daly win his first Irish cap, something that Johann van Graan predicted nearly 3 years ago when he first saw Daly’s potential. Craig Casey and Ben Healy have formed a half back pairing at Pro14 level this season that has shown a maturity and calmness under pressure that belies the fact both are only twenty one years of age. It’s surely only a matter of time before Casey is capped and if Healy can make the Munster ten shirt his own for the European campaign then he has the opportunity to get a step ahead of some of his competitors for the green jersey who won’t be starting big games. Gavin Coombes’s physicality and handling have earned him multiple player of the match awards already this season and if as anticipated he gets a chance to perform in Europe over the coming weeks he can expect to spend some time in Carton House in 2021.
The players I’ve mentioned already are on most people’s radar and are likely to be in discussions around Ireland squads in 2021 but there are a number of others who are just starting to break through into the Pro14 line-up that have huge potential but may take more time to fully develop. Players like Josh Wycherley, who has performed so well when given the chance recently, John Hodnett, who van Graan name checked as a potential European standard player before his unfortunate injury, Keynan Knox, who at 21 is currently more than holding his own at tight head prop and Jack O’Sullivan who made his Champions Cup debut last season.
Of those mentioned above, Healy, Hodnett and Wycherley are still in the academy which also has players such as Thomas Ahern, Jake Flannery and Alex Kendellen who have huge potential and the ability to make their own mark in a Munster jersey in 2021.
5) Of the up and coming prospects, who would you most like to see given his chance and allowed to develop, even if it means short term frustration?
As I said there is plenty of talent coming through and quite a few of them are likely to represent Ireland in the future but there is one player that stands out for me and that’s Thomas Ahern.
Guys with his athletic prowess just don’t come along very often. He’s 6 foot 9 inches tall and despite being 110kgs already, it seems his frame will allow him to further bulk up in the coming seasons. Rugby is not a contact sport; it’s a collision sport where size, strength, speed and power matter so if Ahern can add bulk for the tight exchanges without compromising and losing too much speed he could really turn into a top level X factor player for Munster. Given he started out playing in the backs and only switched to the second row in his late teens he has great pace and good handling skills. He has come primarily through the Youths system so even at this point may not be physically conditioned as well as his national contemporaries which only leaves further room for improvement.
What he has shown at AIL and Ireland under 20 level is that he has the potential to do the job of a second row and also add that something special around the field. At AIL level we’ve seen him catch a kick off and race untouched for a try, for Ireland under 20’s we’ve seen him outsprint opposition wingers when running in tries from the half way line and for Munster against Zebre recently we saw him collect a chip over the defensive line and carry the ball over 50 metres before being taken down. This isn’t what you would normally expect from your second rows and is comparable to the impact we saw from R.G. Snyman during his stint in Japan. Snyman looked like a man playing against an underage team at times prior to his move to Limerick and given his experience and similar physical attributes to Ahern it’s hard to think of anyone better for Ahern to learn from in the coming years.
It’s up to Ahern and Munster now to manage the situation and make sure that potential is translated into on field performances but there is a chance Munster have a real super star in the making.
6) In terms of Munster's all-important identity, are you happy that the best traditions of the province are being utilised - or is it time to put all that SUAF stuff to bed and find a different mojo?
Munster’s historical identity was founded on the basis of players and fans, temporarily leaving aside club allegiances and uniting under a provincial banner. Professionalism, academy development of players and IRFU strategy however have all combined to de-prioritise the club game to the point where now it plays a relatively minor role in the Irish rugby pathway, leaving Munster to be more of its own unique identity rather than the collective we have historically known.
In the 00’s the media focused on the wider social appeal of rugby in the province (especially in Limerick) and comparisons with GAA structures, along with on field success helped to draw in the casual fans but the 10’s saw the decline of the club game and the lack of on field success for Munster occurred in parallel which created the question marks around the provinces identity.
I also don’t buy the idea that because a team have always played a certain style that they should continue to play that style forever. You need to be able to tailor your game plan to match the attributes and skills of the team. Playing a game tactically that doesn’t suit your players seems to be a pretty quick way for a coach to get his P45. On field success is the be all and end all of professional sport and traditionalism generally takes a back seat.
For me Stand Up and Fight works because it offers something unique to fans. Anyone can pump rock music into a stadium to try and create an atmosphere but it rarely works and they may have to play it again and again during the game itself to generate the false idea of excitement or atmosphere. Stand Up and Fight took root in Munster through Brian O’Brien in the late 90s and was adopted by the players and later by the fans. It works because it’s organic and hasn’t been forced.
While the 10’s may have led to people questioning Munster’s identity the rebirth of the connection between team and fan has it genesis in Stand Up and Fight. It took Anthony Foley’s untimely death and the unforgettable match against Glasgow for that to happen and in the centre of the pitch at Thomond Park that afternoon we saw players and fans both celebrate and grieve and as one they sang Stand Up and Fight. No “morketing goy” can come up with that.
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