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Game Plan
As shown in Clermont, Munster know that if they stick to their strategy they can overcome most obstacles thrown at them. So what is Munster's game plan and how will influence Leinster's strategy?
Munster's game plan has been pretty clear for most of this season, they don't want to play ball in their own third, they are happy to use strike plays and move the ball wide in the middle third and once inside the opposition 22 they are happy to go with their heavy carriers. Nothing too fancy but along with taking the points when they are on offer it has been extremely effective.
Anywhere close to or in their own 22 and Munster's aim is to exit cleanly and reset. That can be to kick to touch and compete at the lineout, kick long and look for territory or a contestable box kick and look to regain possession but the priority is to not play ball in positions they are uncomfortable in. They trust their defense and are happy to actually gain territory without the ball in hand and by using their quick line speed they can force opponents backwards even when they don't have possession.
In the middle third of the pitch Munster are happiest to play ball. There is still space to work with as the opposition still need to be wary of kicks in behind and Munster have evolved their play to be less direct. Instead of playing predominantly off nine, the Munster forwards are now more comfortable on the ball and there is a lot more passing/offloading on the gain line both inside and tipped on to runners coming from deep. Munster are also more likely to run strike plays from set piece in this area of the pitch. Munster are willing to go through multiple phases but also aren't afraid to kick deep into opposition territory and pin them back into their own 22.
Near and in the opposition 22 with more defenders pushing up into the line and less space to work with Munster like most teams tend to be narrower. They use their big carriers like Coombes, Stander, De Allende, Farrell, Kilcoyne etc in a heavy pod rotation to pound away at the defensive line looking to create mismatches and space for others.
"The expert in battle moves the enemy, and is not moved by him" - Sun Tzu
The kicking game that Munster are using to gain territory is exactly what Leinster fear. Leinster's strategy is some what similar. They prefer to not have the ball and to capitalize on the mistakes of the opposition. They want to pressure you into mistakes and when the ball is turned over Leinster are so well trained to transition (Lancaster's comfortable in chaos), that they take advantage of an opponent at their weakest point unable to defend as a unit. Once in possession Leinster still like to use their rotation of heavy carriers to batter teams into submission but similar to Munster they don't like to play ball deep in their own half.
Munster need to stick religiously to their kicking plan and pin Leinster back inside their own half where they can either keep to the plan and kick it back to Munster who will have reset or they can play out from their own half and risk being turned over or conceding a penalty.
Set Piece
The set piece will once again be key. If, and thats a big if, Munster can get parity or better in the scrum they will be extremely happy. Munster need to ensure that they don't concede territory and points from the Leinster scrum and have the ability to launch Larkham's strike moves from their own put in.
“So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong, and strike at what is weak.” - Sun Tzu
And while the scrum will be huge from a defensive point of view for Munster its the lineout where they will look to attack. As seen against both Clermont and Connacht recently the lineout and the platform it creates is huge. Munster look to launch their driving maul from the lineout and they will be looking for two things if they can get it going forward, 1. is territory and 2. is creating space for the backs to operate in as they suck in extra defenders.
The lineout is also Leinster's achilles heel, with nearly all of their hookers having had problems with their throwing. Munster will look to get POM up into the air early to compete, stop the easy ball to the front and force Leinster to throw longer where they are not comfortable. Another option is to offer Leinster the front of the lineout as an easy out but with Munster overloading it with tight five forwards who can counter their maul and have tail gunners ready if they decide to go wide. By using the tactical kicking game to find touch Munster can pressure Leinster where they are weakest and hope to gain further territory from these exchanges.
“The whole secret lies in confusing the enemy, so that he cannot fathom our real intent.” - Sun Tzu
The breakdown will also be massive. In attack, Leinster will look to commit one, maximum two players to each ruck, hoping for quick clean ball and allow them rotate their heavy carriers. Munster however have so many jackal threats that Leinster may not be able to do this effectively. Munster need to play a game of cat and mouse with the Leinster attack. They need to paint a picture to the Leinster players that they are going to jackal at certain breakdowns to force Leinster to over commit to that ruck resulting in their heavy carriers being unable to reset in time and Leinster having to slow down play to reload or be forced to kick ball away. Munster can also look to the rucks for penalties, turnovers and slowing the ball down.
Munster are using variations on the same moves to create different pictures and keep defenses guessing. The Haley try against Clermont is covered below but there are similarities to the move used in the second half against Connacht further down.
Both lineouts have come after Munster have been dominant in the maul and use Stander as the ball handler at the tail faking the maul. Both see De Allende run a crash ball line back into the ten channel before popping the ball back, Farrell is coming back into the 12 channel to occupy defenders and both Murray and the hooker keep the same roles.
However where and how Munster are looking to hit is very different. Earls hitting the line versus POM are very different things. Munster will be looking to keep Leinster guessing but will rely on the maul being effective to tie the defenders in.