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Munster go to Allianz Park on Saturday facing one of their biggest tests in the pool stages of the Champions Cup for a long long time knowing that they must win one of their games in London or Paris if they want to qualify for the knockout stages. I don't think we'll see many changes to the Munster squad for the game with Arno Botha's disciplinary hearing today potentially forcing their hand somewhat. As I wrote in my Examiner article the weather played a huge factor on Saturday evening but Munster also didn't help themselves with unforced errors. However there are a number of positives that Munster can take from the game.
No matter what players Mark McCall picks the Saracens defensive system will generally remain the same. Teams don't alter systems that often due to personnel changes. Saracens are a hugely physical side who try to force you to run the ball into the areas that they are the strongest. They try to slow down the ruck to give their defensive line time to reset. They then push hard on the outside with a shooter from the 13 channel or far winger to create a U shape for the attacking team to run into. The defense is forcing the ball carrier into a channel when Saracens have their strength in depth and they can then tackle, compete for the ball or reset. The key to break through this defensive system is getting to the outside before the shooter in the Saracens 13 channel has a chance to force Munster back inside. If Munster can around the shooter and exploit the space he leaves then the likes of Earls and Conway can really shine.
When looking to exploiting the space left by the 13 shooter I think Munster could utilise the grubber kick more often. In the second half on Saturday it wasn't really an option because if you give the ball away you were likely to be retreating 50 metres back into your own half and then struggle to get back up field due to the conditions. But as the Saracens wingers tend to tuck in to try and support the defensive line especially when the 13 shoots up there is space available behind the line. A varied kicking game could be effective in asking questions of the defense and while the kicks themselves may not create a try the variation of kicking versus passing or contact may cause a hesitation by a defender and allow Munster to exploit the space.
A more varied kicking game may also lead to more Saracens lineouts and that was something that Munster dealt with very effectively on Saturday night. POM, Holland, JOD, Beirne and Kleyn all either stole ball or put pressure on the Saracens throw. As with the defense, while the personnel may change the system isn't likely to change that much. I can see Munster sticking with a similar back 5 in the pack to go after the Saracens throw as much as possible. Munster would have been happy with the scrum overall and especially with how the replacements went. Boomer brought great stability to the scrum when he came on and I think Rowntree and van Graan will be more likely to trust him with more minutes off the bench this weekend.
Munster showed glimpses of their attacking potential in the first half and held onto the ball in very poor conditions in the second half. What they failed to do was maintain tempo consistently enough through the phases to make Saracens work and create gaps. Some of that was down to inaccurate passing, mainly from the base of rucks from Conor Murray but also Murray had to dig the ball out of the ruck far too often. Munster have to be more clinical at recycling clean, quick ball from the breakdown. For me they secure the ball well but what they are not doing is clearing the path for the scrum half to get easy access to the ball carrier who is presenting. Its not something I'm a big fan of but its now part of the modern game and I think Munster need to be using the judo type body roll more often to clear bodies out of the way. Going in with the shoulder to move a player lying on the ball doesn't seem to be effective against the bigger teams and the increased likelihood of a card means the judo roll may be a better choice.
In terms of attack Munster need to continue with the current Larkham plan but they need big games from their playmakers. They need Hanrahan, Rory Scannell and Murray getting up to the gain line and throwing flat passes that keep defenders guessing. If you look at O'Mahony's try from Saturday again, Scannell takes the ball to the line, hits a lovely skip pass off his right past Farrell and three defenders to Earls on the outside who just runs fast and straight. Once Earls is tackled Munster are pouring forward before the Saracens defensive line can reset fully and communicate who has who for the next phase. Murray whips a pass past Beirne to POM who crashes over. The two Saracens defenders closest to the ruck are fixed on Beirne and POM gets the space to take the try.
The remaining areas are restarts and transitions. On restarts I just feel Munster switched off a few times in recent games and allowed teams easy territory and points. We can't afford to give Saracens anything easy on Saturday in North London. On transition play Munster look very dangerous. Keith Earls is playing some of the best rugby of his life at the moment and on Saturday we saw that if you give him an inch of space he will exploit it. Earls footwork is elite, and a few times on Saturday we saw him go backwards or sideways to get around the initial chaser and exploit the space left behind. Once he beats the initial chaser he can get his head up and look for a lazy runner who leaves a gap in the line or for a miss match against a tight five forward. He will also just back his pace with a chip in behind. Conway didn't get many chances on Saturday but his strength is with his trailing runs. If he can get on Farrells shoulder then he only needs one pass or offload to get him into the space. Earls and Conway were Munster's most threatening attacking options last week and Larkham has to find ways to get them into space with ball in hand to make things happen.
I don't for one minute think that Munster will find it easy on Saturday but at the same time i don't think there's any need to enter the game with a pessimistic point of view either. Munster are in the middle of an attacking evolution. Its going to take time but when it does click someone is going to get a hell of a surprise and wouldn't it be great if it was this Saturday.
I'd love it if we beat them.