Tactical changes force a switch at 10 for Ireland

There has been so much written and spoken about the battle for the green jersey but for the most part the Irish Rugby Media have glossed over the reasons for the change by the Irish Management to move from Crowley to Prendergast for the 2025 6 Nations campaign.

To fully understand the change you need to look at what Ireland are doing tactically and most importantly what has changed in the last 12 months. Up until the Autumn Internationals in 2024 Ireland under Farrell had been an "on ball" team. Possession was key to how they played. They wanted ball in hand, because they used a pod system with short range passing to compress opposition defensive lines and create space on the edge. The more ball in hand they had, the more rucks, the more carries, the more passes etc the more likely they were in theory to win as these were signs that their attach was functioning.

In that system you need your 10 to be a threat to the defence with ball in hand, a facilitator who can take the ball to the gain line and pick the pass to put a runner through the gap. Towards the end of his career Sexton may have lost pace but he could still hit the gain line and pick a pass. Ross Byrne played a similar style but again without the pace to truly threaten defences but Jack Crowley has the running threat as well as the short range passing to suit this on ball style Ireland were playing.

So what has changed? Well the real answer is Jacques Nienaber. Andy Farrell has long used a simple advantage to his benefit - cohesion. One of the biggest problems of being an international coach is the lack of preparation time you have with your players. The IRFU have a system with central contracting that allows the national side a large say in when a player plays, how many minutes they play, when they are available for national camps etc far more than a lot of other countries especially those with leagues that are not union run. Farrell has been able to pick on one of the most consistent teams in European rugby and take almost en masse that playing base who train day in day out together and use their cohesion and style to his advantage at international level. Most noticeably the advantage Ireland have with this seems to be negated at RWC time when all teams have longer access to their playing squads.

Below is a table showing the percentage of "cohesion" per 6 Nations team based on the initial squads named for the tournament back in January 2025.

Country	# in Squad	# Club Teams	Highest %Age for one Club
Ireland	36	4	64%
Italy	34	11	47%
Scotland	37	10	43%
France	42	11	31%
Wales	34	10	24%
England	36	8	19%

Now back to Jacques Nienaber. Nienaber came into Leinster last season after the Boks RWC campaign and most importantly after pre season. He didn't have a chance to make drastic changes but he did manage to bed in his defensive blitz system during the season. Leinster's style was moving more and more towards "off ball" similar to how the Boks won the RWC. Off ball rugby is essentially about minimizing risk. You give the other team the ball because you are more likely to make mistakes when you have possession. With off ball rugby the key is to play in the right part of the pitch - you want to keep the opposition in their own half, apply defensive pressure and limit penalties which give them easy access to your own territory and more importantly possession to play in there.

Farrell realised that with Leinster playing a different style to Ireland the advantage that he had with cohesion would be lost so in essence he has copied Nienaber and Leinster's style to maintain it. The results can best be seen below in what is a very small sample size but shows significant changes in key metrics for the Irish team.

	Rucks	Passes	Carries	Kicks	Possession	Territory	Attacking Mins (6N only)
Average 2025	80	174	104	31	46%	53%	16.93
Average AIs 2024	95	210	131	22	53%	60%	NA
Average 2024	99	197	131	26	54%	56%	21.58
Average 2023	100	196	138	27	54%	56%	20.64

Rucks are down 15%, passes are down 17%, carries are down 21% and kicks are up 41%. You can also see the dips in possession, territory and attacking minutes.

So how does this translate into Prendergast ahead of Crowley? Prendergast isn't picked as the starting 10 because Ireland want to develop more depth and he's not being picked because he has a "higher ceiling", he's being picked because his skillset suits what Ireland and Leinster want out of their out half to play off ball rugby. Prendergast has an excellent kicking game and he gets fantastic length with his spirals which opens up more tactical kicks for 50:22's and entry to the opposition red zone where Ireland want to play rugby. Prendergasts kicking from the tee should be a strength but is currently only 70% for the tournament. What Prendergast has shown so far this tournament is superb mental strength especially for someone so young as he resets himself and manages to find ways to help Ireland win despite things not going perfectly.

Being off ball doesn't mean no attack but it does mean limited attack outside the final third. Ireland are changing their style of attack so they no longer want heavy possession and short passes. They want to go touchline to touchline as quickly as possibly. To do this they are using the starting half backs primarily for the length and accuracy of their passing. Its probably easiest to identify off set pieces like lineout where we often see van der Flier act as the plus one at the lineout he delivers a ball to Gibson-Park standing in the 10 channel who can then feed a pod in midfield where Prendergast is sitting in behind. He has the option then of receiving the pull back pass and passing to the winger out by the far touchline. This play is designed to stretch the opposition defence wide early and then as Ireland come back towards the middle of the pitch after the ruck set up by the winger they are looking for a mis-allignment in the defensive line they can exploit. Ideally Ireland will only go 3 or 4 phases with this (unless inside or close to the opposition 22) but they will look to get power players like Lowe, Aki, Henshaw, Sheehan, Conan into positions close to the tramlines where they can possibly get a mismatch with a defender.

Crowley has many strengths and is possibly a better all round player than Prendergast at present but his skillset doesn't necessarily suit this new style that Leinster and Ireland are playing. Crowley is now filling the Frawley role on the bench of a guy who can come on, change how Ireland play tactically and is much better suited to chasing a game.

As I've said Prendergast is a good player who skillset suits what Ireland want in attack but he has some significant problems with his defence. He's currently only at 55% tackle completion for the tournament and is only going to be targeted more as teams get additional tape to review. Ireland are currently trying to hide him and using a minder where possible to support him. The issue being that having a minder compresses the defensive line in areas you don't necessarily want them compressed and leaves space elsewhere for teams to attack. Wales dragged Ireland into a dog fight in Cardiff on Saturday not because they became world class overnight but because they forced a lot of scrum penalties which gave them territory and possession and they were able to exploit both Prendergasts tackling (he attempted 16 tackles but only made 8) and the space left by Ireland minding him especially when Ireland were down to 14 players for 20 mins.

To paraphrase what we say on Provincial State of Mind about the scrum but Prendergast's defence won't matter until it does. Ireland and Leinster will be able to hide him away so he doesn't cost them a match for the majority of games but these things have a habit of showing up when you really don't want them to.