An in-depth look at Leinster's squad for next season, whats happening down the depth chart and are there any problem areas to address now and/or in the future.
Hooker
Dan Sheehan (25)
Ronan Kelleher (26)
John McKee (24)
Lee Barron (23)
Gus McCarthy (20)
There's not many teams at international level that have a better first choice hooker 23 pairing than Leinster. Dan Sheehan is one of the best in the world and Ronan Kelleher is an excellent set piece hooker. They are both first choice Irish internationals and unless there are major injuries it looks to stay that way for the time being.
Gus McCarthy is a highly rated prospect and he will look to build game time experience in the pro ranks over the coming seasons. McKee and Barron will be looking to impress as Sheehan and Kellehers minutes are managed but its hard to see them breaking into the first choice 23 without injury and they are more looking over the shoulder at the academy rather than at whats ahead of them. This is very much an area of strength for Leinster and not one that will cause them any concern.
Loose Head Prop
Andrew Porter (28)
Cian Healy (36)
Michael Milne (24)
Jack Boyle (21)
Paddy McCarthy (21)
Note: For the purposes of this depth chart I'm going to name Cian Healy solely as a loosehead prop, even though he may be used as a tighthead for some or all of next season depending on signings.
Andrew Porter is probably THE most important player to Leinster right now. Not only is he one of the best looseheads in the world but his impact to Leinsters tactics and style of play mean that when a game is in the balance Leinster will do everything to keep him on the field for as long as possible.
Cian Healy is a legend of Irish rugby but the reality is will be 37 before the end of the year, has played in every Champions Cup game this season and is likely to play in all the URC knockouts. He's still first choice and at 36 is being offered a new one year deal because Leinster aren't 100% in one of the three young looseheads being able to replace him. Ed Byrne is also a loss because although he wasn't Champions Cup level he was a Mr Dependable who could get the job done at URC level. Milne, Boyle and McCarthy are in ways clones coming through the system, they are all players with potential, who are excellent around the park but who's set piece is questionable. Milne in particular had hard times on the recent tour to South Africa and in the Ulster game. An injury to Healy or especially Porter would requiring one of these three to step up to the first choice 23 and at the business end of the season that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence at present.
Leinster have kept Milne, Boyle and McCarthy on the books for depth at present but they badly need one of them to make a step up and quickly because there's only so long Cian Healy can continue performing at the highest level.
At the very top end of the depth chart this position isn't a problem for Leinster but below the surface they need one of the youngsters to step up and become THE GUY before the 25/26 season or a serious injury to Porter forces Leinsters hand. Getting enough quality game time for all three as well as Porter and Healy and keeping Leinster at the top table will be challenging for Leo Cullen because there's only so far you can kick the can down the road.
Tight Head Prop
Tadhg Furlong (31)
Tom Clarkson (24)
Rory McGuire (21)
Again the top of the depth chart is absolute quality. Furlong is a test Lion, a guaranteed Ireland starter and coming back into some of his best form, but after that it suddenly drops off a cliff. Michael Ala'alatoa is heading for Clermont and Temi Lasisi is going to Connacht which leaves Leinster short of bodies for this position.
Cian Healy can cover tight head and I think he may well have to do so at some point next season. Leinster have made approaches for Finlay Bealham and Tom O'Toole showing that they recognize the lack of numbers and gap in quality after Furlong in the depth chart. I am on record as saying I believe Leinster deserve to be able to sign an NIQ tight head as their depth chart has taken a hit for the good of the national team, Salanoa, Aungier and Illo have all moved on and while a direct NIQ replace for Ala'alatoa makes sense it doesn't fit with the optics of the IRFU denying dispensation for the other provinces to sign front row forwards.
If Leinster sign another NIQ tight head it will just be another bad press cycle and will plug a hole in the depth chart that they may eventually have to sign an IQ player for that position anyway. Its very hard to replace generational players Furlong (and Porter) and at the moment there is no one pushing to make that jump. Props take time to mature so perhaps one of Clarkson or McGuire can make that jump in time but for the interim without a new signing and likely a decent level NIQ Leinster would be in trouble.
This is a position with an immediate concern for Leinster and without a signing would be a significant dent in their silverware hopes for next season.
Lock
RG Snyman (29)
James Ryan (27)
Joe McCarthy (23)
Brian Deeny (24)
Conor O'Tighearnaigh (21)
With the signing of Snyman from Munster the first choice 23 is stacked with internationals. Snyman is a unicorn in terms of his size, power and skillset and will improve Leinster without a doubt. McCarthy is a superb spoiler and a good carrier in the right areas of the pitch. Ryan has suffered from trying to be both a loosehead lock who offers impact around the pitch and being the tight head/heavy lock that Leinster need for the set piece.
Again the top end of the depth chart is excellent but its looking underneath that causes concern. Snyman is on a one year deal, is likely to be away with South Africa for The Rugby Championship and Autumn Internationals and similar to Ryan and McCarthy will need some sort of rest periods during the season - and thats before you look at his injury history.
Managing the game time of the top three in the depth chart will be vital for Leo as the loss of Jenkins and especially Molony who were available all season long will be felt. The previous loss of Jack Dunne when signing Jenkins initially has also weakened the depth chart.
Brian Deeny has only 12 URC starts so far in his career and he will have to step up considerably along with Conor O'Tihearnaigh who has a total of 53 professional minutes under his belt.
Leinster may turn to back rows to plug the gap but Baird is now an international and needs to managed so it may well be the likes of Soroka or Mangan who need to be used and can they do enough in the tight to cover it off?
I think this position epitomizes the Leinster win now attitude at present. Previously the consideration would be to back the likes of Molony to help guide the team through the league and pool stages while developing guys like Ryan or McCarthy. I don't think Leinster see those level of players coming through at the moment hence the move to get Snyman in on a short term deal. What happens when he leaves - do Leinster get into a bidding war with the likes of Bath and hope the IRFU let them keep him for another few years and is there anyone from the underage system who could be ready to step up to first team rugby in the next 2 or 3 years - Spicer?
Back Row
Caelan Doris (26)
Jack Conan (31)
Josh van der Flier (31)
Will Connors (28)
Ryan Baird (24)
Max Deegan (27)
Scott Penny (24)
Alex Soroka (23)
James Culhane (21)
Diarmuid Mangan (21)
Leinster's greatest area of strength - the top of the depth chart with Doris, Conan, van der Flier, Connors and Baird is amazing. So many quality players with different skillsets that allow Leinster to play their game. Even with injuries its hard to break into that top 5.
The level below that was seen as potentially at Ireland squad level but as seen on the South Africa tour without having some of the real quality difference makers from the first choice 15 playing they can struggle. The second level suffer because when they play URC games Leinster can demolish teams and it gives little insight into how good they really are and when it comes to the top level games they are sitting in the stands because the top level are just so good.
Leo to be fair to him has done an amazing job at keeping those second level players happy and getting them to re-sign with the province despite offers of first team minutes elsewhere. Getting ahead of players on central contracts is so difficult due to the national need so it will likely take a number of injuries for any of them to truly get a chance to break in the first 23.
Scrum Half
Jamison Gibson- Park (32)
Luke McGrath (31)
Cormac Foley (24)
Fintan Gunne (20)
Gibson-Park is currently playing the rugby of his life and has assumed the mantle of Leinster's attacking fulcrum since Sexton retired. He is integral for both Leinster and Ireland but with Leinster the gap between himself and the back up available was laid bare in the Champions Cup final where despite the game going into extra time and over 100 minutes of playing time, Luke McGrath was the only unused substitute on either side.
Cormac Foley has shown glimpses that he is ready to overtake McGrath next season but he has to be trusted and picked by the management first. Fintan Gunne is the latest player to come from the underage system with hype and potential but scrum half is a position that the Leinster production line has failed to unearth a first choice 9 at international level, this century, who could hold down the jersey for a sustained period.
I think Foley in particular has the ability next season to be the back up scrum half and Gunne will get some game time to develop further. However the main risk here is injury and the drop off should Gibson-Park be injured/unavailable for a big game. Is Foley and Ross Byrne a good enough half back pairing to win a Champions Cup final next season?
Out Half
Ross Byrne (29)
Harry Byrne (25)
Sam Prendergast (20)
Ciaran Frawley (26)
Charlie Tector (22)
This is in a way Leinsters weakest overall position because they don't have a regular international starter in there. I'm including Ciaran Frawley at outhalf despite the fact he's only had three starts there in the last two seasons. Frawley is the utility back in the 6/2 bench split but for whatever reason Leinster management don't seem to give him starts there.
Sam Prendergast is currently the subject of talks between Leinster, Connacht and the IRFU around a loan deal to cover JJ Hanrahan's injury for next season. I don't see the overall benefit of the deal for Prendergast myself, yes he will get more gametime but most likely its not going to include Champions Cup, he may well go on the Emerging Ireland tour at the start of the URC season and then after learning a new system at Connacht he has to come back and learn a new system at Leinster under Tyler Bleyendaal. For me it only makes sense as a long term and potentially permanent deal that doesn't make sense for Leinster.
Ross Byrne is the man in possession of the 10 jersey at the moment and he is a good system fit for Leinsters current attack. He has his physical limitations but he's a good kicker and can sit in the pocket and pick his passes. The problem is that at the very top level he doesn't have a carrying threat and defenses drift off him easily and snuff out Leinsters phase play off 10.
Harry Byrne is almost the mid point between Ross and Frawley in terms of skillset but he tends to make more errors during the game than Ross. Charlie Tector is the forgotten man of the out half conversation and is likely to struggle for game time next season as the players above him the pecking order fight it out.
Leinster have 4 options and they need to make a choice on who and what is their priority. Do they go all in on Prendergast and is he physically ready? Do they back Frawley even though his style and skillset is more unique compared to the others? What changes will Bleyendaal make and does that impact who is first choice? Do Leinster stick with the 6/2 and limit gametime off the bench for players who only cover 10?
Centre
Robbie Henshaw (30)
Garry Ringrose (29)
Jordie Barrett (27)
Jamie Osbourne (22)
Ben Brownlee (21)
Hugh Cooney (20)
Similar to backrow Leinster have an abundance of talent to pick from at centre. Henshaw and Ringrose are the pair in situ. I have included Jordie at centre but he can cover across the backline and Jamie Osbourne has proved himself at Champions Cup level at inside centre. Ben Brownlee has shown glimpses of what he can do and I think he will look to take more gametime next season.
With Ringrose's and Henshaw's minutes managed, Barrett not arriving till December it should mean there are minutes available. Ngatai will be missed because when he was fit he was a solid option for cover but now Osbourne looks to be set to fill that hole.
There are other players in the back three and at outhalf that can cover centre as well so this isn't an area of concern for Leinster.
Back Three
Hugo Keenan (27)
James Lowe (31)
Jordan Larmour (27)
Jimmy O'Brien (27)
Tommy O'Brien (26)
Liam Turner (24)
Rob Russell (25)
Andrew Osbourne (21)
Henry McErlean (21)
Aitzol King (21)
This is a wide group cover wing and full back with some capable of playing centre as well. For me there's the three that are definitively first choice - Keenan, Lowe and Larmour. Then there's the up and coming players - Osbourne and McErlean, the utility group - O'Brien X2, Turner and then those hoping to make an impact in Russell and King.
Larmour has gotten a second wind under Neinaber and slotted into his defensive system better than most would have expected. Lowe is integral to Ireland and Leinsters kicking games and Keenan is probably the best full back in world rugby when full fit. I think Andrew Osbourne can be brought in to replicate Lowe's kicking and McErlean given time to develop can be a solid back up for Keenan.
Leinster then have a group of players in their mid 20's a lot of whom are utility or back up players that Leinster need to keep fresh should injuries occur and depth be truly tested. As with other positions Leo has done a good job of keeping everyone happy with this but there seems to be a bigger line drawn between the first choice squad and the dirt trackers with the knockout squads and tour to South Africa again showing where you are.
Conclusion
Next season will see Leinster have one of the top squads in the URC and Europe. The only holes I see in the starting 23 at present are at out half and bench tight head. The out half issue can be resolved with developing one player or working a system to play to the strength of the player chosen. They need a signing for back up tight head as Healy can't play both positions off the bench and they can't afford a long term injury to Gibson-Park given the current options behind him at 9.
Short term they need one of the loose head props to step up to replace Healy and they may need Clarkson to step up and be the bench tight head if they don't sign an NIQ. They also need one of the academy/underage tight head props to develop quickly for depth.
Short to medium term they need bodies in at lock from the academy and underage structure. They need to hope guys like Spicer develop into solid URC level players in the short term and they may well have to replace Snyman with another second row signing(s) at the end of next season to start bridging the gap until some bodies start to come through.
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