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One of the most intriguing pieces of this Autumn Nations internationals is how Andy Farrell will approach the selection of his forward pack. Already this season we have seen changes at provincial level such as Porter moving to loose head and Beirne playing at 6 for Munster, that give him more options in the forwards.
Farrell will look to offset a lack of impact with ball in hand in the front row by getting Porter, Kelleher and Furlong on the pitch at the same time. The ability to have Porter and Kelleher on the pitch at the same time is a huge boost for Farrell as he searches for heavy carriers that can be game changers for Ireland when they are in possession. Kelleher may not have seen game time for the Lions but even the experience of touring and training with the best of the home nations will stand to him, but it will be the accuracy of his set piece that will decide if can take the starting jersey on a long term basis. Rob Herring has been the lineout safety net up to this point for Farrell but the selection of Dan Sheehan suggests Farrell has full faith in Kelleher and wants more than just set piece from his two match day hookers.
The backrow is almost an embarrassment of riches for Farrell and he can rotate the players to suit his own or opposition styles as required. Josh van der Flier has improved his carrying beyond all recognition over the last 18 months and at the moment looks destined to take the 7 jersey for the autumn series. Jack Conan may be the Lions test number 8 but he faces pressure even at provincial level to hold onto his place with Doris pushing him for starts in both blue and green jerseys. Although Doris can play 6 or 8, his selection at blindside against Japan looks to be more to balance out the back row skillsets as Farrell has used him primarily at 8 over the last two seasons. Then there is the likes of Gavin Coombes, who is a completely different type of player to Conan to put into the mix. Conan is much more effective with ball in hand in the wider channels where as Ireland don't tend to produce too many athletes of Coombes size, speed and power that mean it will be difficult to leave him out for much longer.
But second row is where I think the real questions now need to asked - what does Farrell want from his second row pairings? James Ryan was a superstar in the making before he even played a senior game of rugby and was an Ireland player before he even pulled on the Leinster jersey, but I think we are getting very close to the point where a difficult discussion may need to be had.
Ryan's omission from the initial Lions squad was a significant surprise to main stream Irish rugby media and the fact he was overlooked as Alun Wyn Jones's replacement was put down to an injury niggle despite the fact Ryan played 80 minutes in both of Ireland's summer games. I believe he was omitted from the Lions squad because he didn't meet the criteria that Warren Gatland was looking for from his locks, as Gatland wanted physical players that could make multiple significant impacts during the game.
Ryan stands at 6 foot 7 and weighing in at just over 18 stone he is a sizeable athlete, but in the modern game he is not your archetypal lock. He doesn't fit the criteria for the monster tight head lock, doesn't have the desired carrying ability of the loose head lock and isn't considered an elite lineout operator either. So why is he so valued by Leinster and Ireland? What he does bring is unbelievable work rate. Under Farrell he is averaging close to double digits in both carries and tackles every game. His ability to consistently and quickly get back into the defensive line or reload into an carrying pod is the perfect offset when you have others around him that bring impact.
But in my opinion his best work has come when he hasn't had to perform the tight head lock role himself for Ireland. Joe Schmidt looked to utilize the likes of Quinn Roux or Jean Kleyn as the tight head lock to allow Ryan more freedom, but he hasn't been able to impact games in the same way since Farrell took over as too often he has been asked to play that tight head role himself. Ryan may average nearly 10 carries per game but he's only making about 1 metre for each of those carries. And while stats in itself don't tell the whole story it is hard to remember him being a destructive carrier against top opposition and he has failed to make more than 20 metres ball in hand in any of Farrells games in charge.
A lock pairing of Ryan and Beirne may work against the more mobile teams but when it comes to the top level teams its just lacks the size, power and tight ball carrying ability to make it work. Ryan and Henderson are a much better suited pairing, who's skills offset better and contribute more to the overall pack especially with the likes of Beirne at 6.
What we are seeing with the selection for Japan is Farrell putting players around Ryan that can complement his style. Rob Herring was the safe option at hooker because of his throwing, but once Kelleher has proven his set piece is solid it seems Herring may loose his starting spot. Similar questions may soon be asked of Ryan from those looking to take his jersey. For example, Iain Henderson brings the leadership, lineout and ball carrying option to the table. Tadhg Beirne allows a wider carrier, a jackal threat and potentially another lineout option if played at 6. If Ryan Baird can lose the 20 minute impact sub tag for both Leinster and Ireland he is a fantastic athlete that can make huge impacts upon games. Tom Ahern who has been called up as a development player seems to be maturing into a player who has size, speed and the x factor to make the jump to international level soon.
Unless we start to see more dominant carries and less soak tackles from Ryan then Andy Farrell will have a serious decision to make in the near future. The big ask for James Ryan will be to step out of the shadows where his work rate is so appreciated and make himself the centre of attention with big moments that impact the game on both sides of the ball.
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