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As expected before the Autumn Internationals started Andy Farrell used the Japan game as a warm up game for continuity and bedding in partnerships and has kept more or less the same team to face the All Blacks.
The game against Japan was a huge positive for Farrell as it brought to the fore of the public and pundits minds how this Ireland side wants to play. Farrell would have been extremely pleased with the unstructured play from his team against Japan and how tactically it continues the theme and development from the England game at the end of the Six Nations, through the summer internationals into the autumn series.
Porter's switch to loose head and Kelleher's continued development put Ireland in a formidable position of having three impact players in the front row all capable of playing 60 minutes plus if required. Kelleher's throwing has been the main concern and while it was superb against Japan he will face a stiffer test against the All Blacks.
Henderson deserves his call up to the starting XV and his leadership, ability at set piece and impact with ball in hand should suit Irelands tactics. I understand why James Ryan's work rate is so important to the team but if you take a wider look his lack of impact moments in the game is a significant worry. Henderson as a partner in the second row should assist in freeing Ryan up but the bigger question is to do what?
The back row itself has a lovely balance to it. All are comfortable on the ball, can carry effectively in different areas of the pitch and compliment each others skillsets. Doris like Ryan is there in the most part for his work rate and "unseen" work but he also brings the ability to impact with ball in hand. Conan is so effective with his footwork and speed in the wider channels and van der Flier mid field carry and tackle rate will be required against a mobile All Blacks team.
Overall I expect Ireland to be extremely solid in the set piece against the All Blacks once Kelleher's throwing holds up. They have a very good tight five for the scrum, enough leaders and experience in the tight five and a number of good lineout jumpers and options to counter the All Blacks. They should secure enough primary possession for Ireland to use and its really just a question of what they do with it.
Ireland are trying to utilise additional play makers within their team. Based on the Japan game its easy to see how they are looking to do this. Apart from Sexton they want Lowe popping up more in midfield and using his size and offloading ability to punch holes and put Ireland on the front foot. They also want to get Gibson Park on the ball more and not just at the base of a ruck. They want to see him either taking a few steps with the ball from the base or taking a pop pass from the breakdown and become an alternative first receiver. This works very well when Ireland can punch holes in the defensive line, get offloads away and have quick ruck ball like they did against Japan. But, and like Nicki Minaj its a very big but, when Ireland are unable to get that front foot ball and are working off slow ruck ball the effectiveness of Gibson Park comes into question. He doesn't have the time or option to take those steps at the base, he doesn't show up as the first receiver and his decision making and passing is put under pressure. This impacts how Sexton plays the game, the time and space he has to play and whether he has to kick more than he would like.
Henshaw injury has deprived him of his rightful place in the starting XV and I think if we are honest its Ringrose's place that is under the most threat. Aki and Henshaw are a Lions starting centre pairing from the summer and have the ability to both bosh and pass their way through and around teams. Ringrose is a solid player but he isn't bringing the strike run threat and its been a long while since we've seen his passing game bring the outside backs into the game on a consistent basis.
I've already spoken about what Lowe brings to the game with ball in hand but he was dropped during the Six Nations for his defensive lapses. Japan would have been a great confidence boost for him but the reality is he was never tested defensively, his decision making was never put under pressure and Mike Catt and Andy Farrell can only really base any improvement from training experience. I think Conway has been included specifically to deal with the All Blacks kicking game and the contestables that both sides are likely to use in abundance on Saturday. Conway, Lowe and Keenan can expect to be bombarded aerially by the All Blacks and not just with contestables. The All Blacks will look to engage in kick tennis until they spot the miss match or gap in the Irish defensive line to attack and its their pace and support play when they do attack from transition ball that I believe will truly test Ireland. I think they will look to remove Keenan from the back field on kick chase and then look to test Lowe (and Conway) on the edges. Whether Farrell can come up with a plan to mitigate that and whether the Irish players can make it work are two very different questions but given their match against the Welsh, I certainly would fancy the All Blacks to wingers to score on Saturday.
The bench selections are somewhat strange in my opinion especially when you consider what Farrell is looking for from his starting XV.
Sheehan, had a solid game against Japan and although he offers much more impact off the bench Herring is the "safe" option. Herring brings good work rate but little impact with ball in hand and is there primarily as the lineout fail safe. In line with his starting prop selection and wanting "impact" it would make more sense to have Kilcoyne ahead of Healy.
I've long said Beirne's best position at the top level is that hybrid lock role but what he does offer is impact, through his jackal work, his lineout ability and his ball carrying.
The O'Mahony and Murray selections, while I don't think too many will have issues with them being picked as next in line, does tend to look more like a safety net of experience and leadership to steady the game rather than a selection to grab the game.
The outhalf position behind Sexton is something I've touched on many times before and my position hasn't changed. This is a hole that Andy Farrell didn't start, but it's one he refuses to stop digging himself, and its the still the biggest problem in this squad. If Sexton goes down injured early the 20 minutes Carbery got against Japan isn't going to help much.
Earls as the outside back cover is something that has been tried against Japan and you now start to wonder if the times he did it for Munster this season already were influenced by Farrell and Catt rather than van Graan and Larkham.
Tactically I expect to see a lot of kicking in this game from both sides and anyone who thinks Ireland will have a game like they did against Japan is delusional. Ireland may look to play like that in certain areas when they are able or allowed to but get ready to look skyward a lot if you are following the ball. I think the All Blacks have a superior kicking and transition game that will stretch Ireland and expose some of the defensive questions that still haven't been asked of this team. Although I expect the All Blacks to win by 15+ points I think the most important thing for Ireland is that they continue on with the style and tactics seen since England in Six Nations and that they put in a performance. My worry is that lessons at half back and wing haven't been learned and the kiwis could put us to the sword if they turn on the pressure.