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As it stand right now, on paper Munster don't have a squad to win a Champions Cup. They lack size and carrying ability in the front row, they have failed tactically when faced with the bigger teams such as Leinster, Toulouse Saracens etc and the squad depth hasn't been there to mitigate against injuries to first choice players.
This is a huge season for Munster as due to financial pressures from Covid there has been a clear out of what I would term the middle tier of the squad. The top tier of the squad are your regular internationals and those in extended squads pushing for places in the national squad. These will be top paid players, some with central contracts. The lower tier is young players coming out of the academy, development deals or the first few years of a senior contract, guys with potential and scope to develop that the province is willing to take a calculated chance that they can force their way into a matchday 23 when everyone is fit. Not all of these will work out but relatively they aren't paid much so from a budget and squad perspective they are retained.
The middle tier are players who are probably experienced, may well be established in the starting XV, have been internationals or national squad members previously and are likely to be well paid. During the summer Munster have lost James Cronin, Rhys Marshall, JJ Hanrahan and Darren Sweetnam to this along with the retirements of Billy Holland and CJ Stander. That's a lot of experience and match day 23 players to replace without many like for like replacements.
Munster are looking to replace this experience with the potential of nine academy players promoted to senior contracts - Thomas Ahern, Jack Crowley, Jack Daly, Jake Flannery, James French, Sean French, Ben Healy, John Hodnett and Josh Wycherley. These are players that have huge potential but with the cull of middle tier players, there is not only an expectation but a requirement for these players to step up, take their chances and to realize the potential to move Munster back to the top tier and get silverware again.
Depth Chart by Position
Loosehead Prop
Dave Kilcoyne, 32
Jeremy Loughman, 26
Liam O'Connor, 26
Josh Wycherley, 22
James French, 22
James Cronin is a big loss to this group, as he was the ideal prop for a province. He was a top quality prop, solid at the set piece, able to carry and a decent threat at the breakdown. Occasionally he could see the red mist descend but as he wasn't called up for international duty much in recent years he was available to Munster all year round and worked well in tandem with Dave Kilcoyne. The flip side of that is Cronin, despite being such an asset to Munster was also blocking game time and opportunities for the likes of Josh Wycherley, so despite Biarritz's gain, there is actually a decent upside for Munster in Cronin's departure.
Dave Kilcoyne is the obvious starter and top dog in this group. His scrummaging has improved over the years and he is now a nailed down regular in the Irish set up and should start to dislodge Cian Healy from the starting jersey this season. With Kilcoyne being away/rested for international duty and Cronin gone there is a real challenge now to see who can grab the match day jersey as the second loosehead prop. The second tier consists of Jeremy Loughman, Liam "Boomer" O'Connor and Josh Wycherley. Loughman is an absolute baller but there are concerns about him in the tight against top tier teams with massive packs. Wycherley showed in Clermont last season that he is an absolute beast in the tight, especially with his destructive scrummaging, but for him to take a step up and claim the jersey he will need to show more with ball in hand. His form for the Ireland under 20's shows he's capable of that but that he needs to reproduce it at senior level. Boomer is somewhere in the middle of Wycherley and Loughman, in that he has a solid all round game but he needs to prove that his injuries are behind him and that he can reach the heights that his potential seemed to indicate when he first burst onto the scene. James French is someone who has had more than his fair share of injuries but the fact he has been kept on shows that the management team obviously believe he has potential to fulfil. More than anything now he needs to stay injury free and be available to take the chances that may come his way.
Hooker
Kevin O'Byrne, 30
Niall Scannell, 29
Declan Moore, 24
Diarmuid Barron, 23
Scott Buckley, 21
Of all the positions on the pitch, I feel that is probably the one where Munster are the most vulnerable. Although Rhys Marshall wasn't the starting hooker, his return to New Zealand does leave the depth chart lacking in depth for this season. There are only two experienced players in Scannell and O'Byrne and neither are included in the extended national training squad announced.
Niall Scannell and Kevin O'Byrne are without doubt the two players top of the depth chart. Scannell is the set piece hooker with his scrum work being key to his selection against the top tier packs. Kevin O'Byrne is more comfortable in open play and his handling and ability on the ball is outstanding. What both players, and Munster over all lack within the squad for this position, is a heavy carrier option. Someone who like Kilcoyne or Coombes, can take poor or static ball and suck in defenders and still make yards in contact. Munster had been looking for a number of months to resolve that issue and its hoped that the signing of Declan Moore can go some ways towards filling the gap.
Moore, who is Irish qualified, was playing club rugby in Sydney after being part of the extended Melbourne Rebels squad previously. He has a reputation as a ball carrier but injury has halted his progress so far and he will be hoping that he can make a fresh start to kick off his career in the north hemisphere.
It is hoped that Scott Buckley may offer a ball carrying option as well, but that will take time as he develops and it is yet to be seen if he can make that sort of impact at senior level. Its also a big season for Diarmuid Barron who will need to take the chances that will come his way.
Tight Head
Stephen Archer, 33
John Ryan, 33
Roman Salanoa, 23
Keynan Knox, 22
Mark Donnelly, 20
This will be an interesting group for Munster this season. They have two established veteran tight heads in Archer and Ryan, who have been the preferred match day pairing for a few years now. While Ryan continues to make wider Ireland squads he hasn't been able to make a spot in the match day 23 his own and time is no longer on his side. Munster have great potential in the next two on the list with Knox showing that for his age he's been able to utilise his strength and technique to dominate in the tight at Pro14 level with the chances he's had and Salanoa looks to be an tremendous athlete for his size and his heavy carrying is something Munster really need to add to their tight five. Salanoa and Knox are in their early 20's and have great potential but Munster don't have anyone proven in the mid to late 20's behind Ryan and Archer to fall back on. This season will need one or both of Knox and Salanoa to prove that they can deliver on that potential and dislodge one or both of the established tight heads from the first choice matchday 23. Mark Donnelly was with the Ireland under 20's this season and has just joined the academy so I don't expect to be seeing too much of him this season as he starts his development as a professional.
Second Row
I'm going to split the second rows into two groups, Locks and Hybrid Locks, because I believe we may see Munster look to use a third lock on the field to add bulk to their pack and look to soften the loss of CJ Stander.
Locks Hybrid Locks
Jean Kleyn, 28 Tadhg Beirne, 29
RG Snyman, 26 Fineen Wycherley, 23
Jason Jenkins, 25 Cian Hurley, 21
Thomas Ahern, 21
Eoin O'Connor, 21
Paddy Kelly, 21
Second row is such a position of strength for Munster. RG Snyman is still on the road to recovery after last years trials and tribulations, with the latest update expecting him to available to play for Munster sometime in October. Given his limited game time last year Snyman can be treated as a new signing and there is no doubting his world class ability. Jean Kleyn was key to Munsters big performances last season due to his size and physicality. He needs to continue to his improvement with ball in hand but I do think if everyone is fully fit his position in the starting XV could be under threat. Thomas Ahern is the rising star and seems to have the potential to develop into the type of player that RG Snyman is and giving Munster a real X factor.
CJ Stander is not the type of player you can easily go and replace on a like for like basis. Stander regularly put up 10 plus tackles, 10 plus carries as well as other involvements around the pitch, so to replace his impact on the field that workload will need to distributed amongst several players. Looking at the strength in depth of the second row position, the loss of Stander and the lack of impact with ball in hand in the front row the logical decision to me anyway would be to play a hybrid lock at 6. That would allow van Graan to pick two enforcers in the second row from the likes of Kleyn, Snyman, Ahern etc and have the likes of Beirne play at 6.
Jenkins, once he gets over his minor shoulder issue, could play a pivotal role for Munster this season. He is an absolute unit, has the mobility to play backrow and gives Munster an additional heavy carry option then he could end up playing second row in the big games and possible cover the hybrid lock role with Wycherley when Beirne isn't available. Hurley has already seen Pro14 game time and even in that start has shown potential and with his physical size and skillset he could also fill the hybrid lock role if required.
Back row
Peter O'Mahony, 31
Chris Cloete, 30
Jack O'Donoghue, 27
Gavin Coombes, 23
Jack Daly, 23
Jack O'Sullivan, 22
John Hodnett, 22
Alex Kendellen, 20
Daniel Okeke, 19
As I've mentioned already CJ Stander will be a huge loss to Munster this season but in Gavin Coombes they have a player who is well on his way to becoming one of the best No 8's in European rugby. Coombes has elite level power as well as the handling and offloading game to complement his physicality. When fit and available Coombes is one of the first names down on the team sheet.
If Munster do go with a hybrid lock at 6 and Coombes at 8, that only leaves one position up for grabs in the starting back row for the big games. Peter O'Mahony has filled that openside role when asked last season but he may be under pressure somewhat from some of the youngsters coming through. Both Hodnett and Kendellen look like they are made for that role in the future and with Hodnett due back from injury very soon and Kendellen continuing to impress it will be up to both to lay down markers to see if this is the season they can claim that 7 shirt as their own. Munster also have the option of using POM at 6 and Coombes at 8 meaning that the likes of Jack O'Donoghue could get a start in the big games.
Who gets significant minutes in the URC could tell us a lot about where the second tier of back row players stand. Who is the number 8 when Coombes isn't available, will it be O'Donoghue, O'Sullivan or even Kendellen? Okeke has shown that he has the power at underage level but will need to further develop and round out his overall game at senior level and he may have limited chances with the senior team this season. Cloete was the Turnover King in the Pro14 last season and I still expect to see him play significant minutes in the league this season but his place is more under pressure from the youngsters now.
Long term I think Kendellen will emerge as an international and is likely to put most pressure on POM for that 7 jersey in the big games, the only question is how quickly he push his claim to make that starting spot his own.
Scrum Half
Conor Murray, 32
Neil Cronin, 28
Rowan Osborne, 24
Paddy Patterson, 22
Craig Casey, 22
I don't think there's any doubt that Murray is still the top dog but the gap between himself and Casey is closing. Murray is the master at controlling the game and is kicking is unrivaled, but Casey has the ability to up the tempo of the game and they are a formidable matchday pairing.
The real question for Munster, with both Murray and Casey likely to be involved on Irish duty, is who can establish themselves as the third choice 9 and see significant game time in the URC. Patterson and Osbourne are new to the province and that may lead to Cronin being ahead of them in the depth chart at the start of the season. Cronin can read the game well and his control will certainly give him an advantage but the clips of Osbourne in pre season show promise.
Out Half
Joey Carbery, 25
Ben Healy, 22
Jack Crowley, 21
We started to see glimpses that Joey Carbery was coming back to his best towards the end of last season and Munster will be hoping that an injury free run and full pre season will have him back to his best. Its something that Munster desperately need, an outhalf who minimizes mistakes, controls the game, kicks the points when available and still has the ability to spark something in the backline.
With JJ Hanrahan gone to France it creates a big gap in experience behind Carbery. Ben Healy start to last season was like a Hollywood movie, come on as a sub and winning multiple games at the death with long range kicks. He raised his profile quickly but perhaps some of those game winning kicks glossed over the need for Healy to develop other parts of his all round game. His mental strength is unquestionable at the moment and even in the pre season clips it possible to see the evolution of his game and ability to run a backline. He will want to impress when he gets his chances as he is out of contract at the end of the season, after only signing a one year deal in the middle of last season after well publicized interest from the SRU.
Jack Crowley steps up from the academy as a highly rated prospects, due to his performances for Ireland under 20's, his limited senior starts and a daring bid from Ronan O'Gara to bring him to La Rochelle. With Carbery likely to be in Ireland squads and Hanrahan gone, both Healy and Crowley should see enough game time to make their cases to be his back up for the big games.
Centres
Damian De Allende, 29
Chris Farrell, 28
Rory Scannell, 27
Dan Goggin, 26
Alex McHenry, 23
Jake Flannery, 22
The term world class gets bandied about a bit, but I think even in its most strictest sense Damian De Allende would be included as a world class 12. He brings so much to the game, his defense, his handling, his physicality, his leadership, a very underappreciated kicking game, his rucking and counter rucking and towards the end of last season we saw him add lineout jumper to his CV. He is one of THE best and most influential on field signings Munster have ever made, and his absence with the Boks for the early part of the season will be a big loss.
There's no doubting who Munster's starting centre pairing are and why they are picked. De Allende and Farrell provide pairing that will trouble most back rows in terms of physicality, ball carrying and defense. Thats not all they do, but Munster need to mitigate for a lack of heavy carriers in the tight five, and specifically the front row, with big men in the middle of the pitch. De Allende and Farrell both act as auxiliary flankers for Munster, including being used for counter rucking, lineouts and mauls.
The problem for Munster comes when either or both of them are unavailable, because the direct replacements are not of the same skillset and quality. Scannell plays as more of a second five eight and Goggin while physical hasn't established himself to the same level as either of the starters. Alex McHenry has had limited chances so far and will need to impose himself more on games if he is to get a contract extension before the end of the season.
I have included Jake Flannery as a centre for the purposes of the depth chart but he is what is termed in old money a "utility back" and he can cover 10, 12 and 15. I have a lot of time for Jake but I think that for him to break into the first team over the next season or two, there will need to be multiple injuries or a change in how Munster use their centres. Already we have seen Flannery and Crowley used as a pair of playmakers, interchangeably, for the A side, but unless Munster add more heavy carriers to the pack and especially the front row I'm not sure its possible to play this style effectively against the best and biggest teams. Munster will have to plan for life after De Allende at some point and moving to a second play maker at centre may be the best option given the current resources.
Wings
Keith Earls, 33
Andrew Conway, 30
Shane Daly, 24
Liam Coombes, 24
Calvin Nash, 24
Sean French, 22
Jonathan Wren, 22
Conor Philips, 21
Keith Earls is one of the last links between this squad and the glory days of the late 2000's and its amazing to think he's still one of the first names down on the team sheet for the big games. But whether that's a good or bad thing is open to debate - he's still playing amazing rugby and doesn't seem to have lost much of his pace but the flip side is should a team with genuine hopes of winning the Champions Cup have an undisputed first choice winger who turns 34 in October? Thats not a slight on Earls merely an acknowledgement that Munster have struggled to develop players to replace him.
Shane Daly is the closest to doing so and is starting to make an impression with the national side. Daly needs a big season in red that can push his claims in green even further. There has been some talk of Daly making a move to 13 but we haven't seen anything on the pitch just yet. Andrew Conway has been the other first choice wing and while injuries last season meant he saw limited game time, he still remains vital to Munster's game plan with his support running and kick chase. Liam Coombes offers something slightly different to the other wingers due to his combination of size and speed. He offers a real physical threat when coming into the line, where as the likes of Calvin Nash is more similar to the likes of Conway or Earls in his play.
Sean French arrived into the academy with a huge reputation at schools level but has struggled to transfer that form to Ireland under 20's and onto the senior side. Like a lot of others he will be hoping to see game time early in the season and during international camps so he can make an impression before a decision on his contract for next season is made. Jonathan Wren didn't have the same profile as French at schools but was noticeable at Ireland under 20's level. Wren is still in the academy but like French he has struggled to make an impact at senior level and will need to maximise any opportunities as other wise he may well be passed by the likes of Conor Phillips who is currently playing with the Irish sevens team.
Full Back
Simon Zebo, 31
Mike Haley, 27
Matt Gallagher, 24
Mike Haley was mister dependable for Munster last season, a model of consistency throughout the season and unlucky not to get rewarded for the national side. He was solid at the back for Munster, giving a security defensively and under the high ball while still being a threat with the counter attack and strike move. But with the signing of Zebo the situation may well have changed. I don't believe that Zebo was in Munster's initial squad plans for this season and that it was an IRFU driven signing that Munster were only delighted to accept.
Zebo is still Munster's top try scorer despite being away in France for 3 seasons, something he's not shy about publicizing to anyone who will listen. Zebo is a proven try scorer, poses problems for defensive systems when he pops up at first receiver in open play and possibly most importantly has an excellent kicking and counter attacking game which with the new 50:22 law could allow him to claim the 15 shirt as his own. Zebo may well have been left out of the initial 50 man national training squad but I do expect him to be back playing in green before the end of the season.
Matt Gallagher arrived from Saracens last season but injury has severely limited his opportunities. His ability to cover across the back three is a huge benefit but I think he may be limited to outings in the URC unless there are injuries.
Coaches
There is a narrative mainly on social media and forums, but its starting to appear in the media of a split in how the coaches are looking for Munster to play. It seems to be positioned as van Graan's forward dominated, low risk tactical play versus Larkham's all singing all dancing, all offloading tactics.
I have long commented that we tend to see the attributes attributed more to Larkham when the internationals are away. The reason being that the coaches get to spend more time with the players who remain in camp and logically there is more opportunity to embed any changes in style they wish to introduce. However I don't think there is much of difference when the internationals are back. Munster still try to play the same way but as all teams have their internationals back as well and you are playing at a higher standard in competitions such as the Champions Cup the chances of bullying a pack, like you can in the Pro 14, is greatly reduced. If you aren't getting on the front foot as much, if you can't win the collisions then any teams ability to offload or to try attacking play on the back foot is going to impact their style. Effectively its a similar game plan, style and tactics for all games but how effective you are at imposing your game on the opposition determines if you will be able to play as you want and be successful. I don't think much will change tactically this season for Munster and success is likely to be based on how the young players can step during the season.
One of the biggest, and best, news stories announced for this season is the addition of Ian Costello as Academy manager. Ian brings with him a huge amount of coaching experience with Munster, Nottingham and Wasps, as a head and assistant coach who has performed multiple roles within those organizations. The academy is really starting to produce quality players at the moment and while Costello will continue to add to that, he does face significant challenges in areas such as Limerick City where the production line of talent is certainly in trouble. Costello's prior experience with Munster underage and AIL will hopefully allow him to resolve this, but its not going to be a quick fix.
My greatest fear is that this becomes yet another season of transition for Munster, and one without silverware. The two biggest factors that may cause this is,
1- The reliance on the young players to step up may be too much and consistency to needed to get silverware may be impacted.
2 - van Graan is out of contract at the end of the season but the likelihood is that a decision has been made on his future one way or the other already. I felt that he had to get silverware of any sort last season to be fully sure of a contract extension. The Pro12/14 final performance against Leinster, another loss to a heavy hitting side in the Champions Cup and damp end to the season in the Rainbow Cup due to the loss at home to Connacht may have sealed his fate. Contracts for next season are generally tied up around Christmas/New Year time so if Munster are looking for a new head coach, they should be searching now to get the ground work done. van Graan may well know his fate early this season and while I am not doubting his professionalism at all, if news of his departure was to come out early to mid season it may have a negative impact on the squad and potentially on contract talks with key players.
Season Goals
Again, silverware of some sort has to be the goal and the minimum acceptable level is knockout rugby in both competitions. The addition of the South African sides to the newly rebranded URC will bring its own challenges but this may still be the best chance Munster have of a trophy this season as the young squad develops. Qualification from the Champions Cup pool stages will depend on how Munster perform away from home against Wasps and Castres but again its not unrealistic to expect at a home knockout game if they can perform.
Outside of the results I think Munster need to see youngsters like Knox, Salanoa, Josh Wycherley, Thomas Ahern, Alex Kendellen, John Hodnett, Jack Crowley, Jake Flannery etc continue to develop but what Munster must have is these players breaking into the first choice matchday 23 even when everyone is fit.