Three Munster supporters got chatting... an optimist, a pessimist and a realist

My article from Mondays Irish Examiner https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/sport/rugby/three-munster-supporters-got-chatting-an-optimist-a-pessimist-and-a-realist-969179.html

There’s an old saying that a pessimist complains about the wind, an optimist expects it to change but a realist will adjust the sails to suit the conditions.

In Munster’s case, the pessimist is bemoaning the lack of a bonus point against a Saracens side without the vast majority of its World Cup stars, the optimist is celebrating victory over the reigning European champions and the realist is trying to figure out how Munster can progress from Pool 4 of this year’s Champions Cup.

There are very few rugby teams in the world for whom a defeat of the current champions would result in negative media coverage but Munster’s past performances in Europe and the expectations of fans and media alike means this is the reality that Johann van Graan and his squad face.

Munster’s attacking play now revolves around a more expansive style with a higher tempo, more offloads and moving the ball before contact. With the pre-game weather forecast showing gale force winds from the start and rain of biblical proportions due to hit Thomond Park around 7 pm, Saracens won a major battle before a ball was even kicked by forcing Munster to play into the weather in the second half.

Playing into the Cratloe Road end was always going to be tough but when the downpour did arrive with such force, it made Munster’s job even harder.

Peter O’Mahony noted in his post-game comments “They’re the nights you almost don’t want to have the ball” and Saracens were happy to use that adage for their game plan as they played with little intent unless deep in Munster territory.

Even then, they sought the safety of short passes to their big carriers and their wingers were kept warm mainly by chasing kicks.

It may not be the prettiest of game plans but the three stars on their jerseys show just how effective it is.

Munster continued to show intent with their attacking play but the dilemma they faced was that their most potent attacking threats were furthest away from the ball. Keith Earls, who’s footwork and ability to beat defenders remain elite, was yet again the catalyst for a large proportion of Munster’s attacking highlights.

The conditions may have hampered Munster’s attacking plans but by no means was that the only reason it was ineffective. Too often passes were inaccurate, unforced errors were made and the return to the committee meeting at the base of a ruck before giving a pop pass to a static one-out runner will have fans pulling their hair out.

Slow ball from the breakdown continues to be a significant obstacle to Munster implementing their high tempo game plan. The sight of players waving their hands in the air looking for a penalty or having to dig the ball from deep within a pile of bodies before being able to pass is far too frequent. Until they become more clinical in this facet of the game it’s hard to see how they can consistently achieve the tempo in attack they are looking for.

Without tempo, the defensive line is able to reset too easily and Munster are dragged back into a game of heavy carriers or box kicking to regain possession and, as we have seen for the last number of years, this is a game they cannot win against the top teams. Johann van Graan will take positives from keeping Saracens tryless in Thomond Park but Arno Botha’s red card may cause him to miss the return game and his ability with ball in hand off the bench would be a big loss. Jack O’Donoghue and Liam O’Conner both had very positive impacts off the bench with O’Connor’s bringing stability to the scrum and O’Donoghue prominent with his maul defence and lineout steal to end the game.

The Munster coaching team will need to consider if the alterations they make for the game in Allianz Park next Saturday are mainly technical or if it requires personnel changes but either way they know they will face a much stiffer test and the absolute minimum requirement for Munster is a losing bonus point.

Mark McCall has made no secret that Premiership survival is Saracens’ priority this season but what hasn’t been defined so far has been their approach to the Champions Cup. McCall may refer to it as squad rotation but what is becoming clear is that Saracens’ strategy for Europe is to utilise their star players for their three home games and potentially the game away to the Ospreys.

By focusing their top resources on only those four games and aiming for a try bonus in at least three of the games, Saracens could easily finish as a best runner-up and qualify for the knockouts while managing players game time and still maintaining focus on domestic matters.

Because there was no pre-destined expectation by Saracens on Saturday evening’s result, the fact they left Limerick with a losing bonus point was a huge boost to their European challenge and may well come back to haunt Munster at the end of the pool stages.

Munster’s next five games are likely to go a long way to defining their season.

In order, they have Saracens away, Connacht, away, Leinster home, Ulster away and Racing away over the next five weekends. Given the tough schedule and the IRFU player welfare policy, a pessimist may foresee five defeats, an optimist may look to new the attacking patterns finally bedding in which could lead to European qualification and inter-provincial success but only Johann van Graan and his squad can make the adjustments required to keep Munster’s ship on course for knockout rugby.